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Risk vs. Uncertainty

“Correlations, sigma along with a host of other risk metrics all assume historical data is predictive. If that were true the French would still be sitting safely behind the Maginot Line.”  - Richard Weissman

Charts for January 2015 - Should the Fed tighten?

The Problem with Social Mobility

Imagine a bus where individuals are seated in a way that infers their perceived social value.  The closer an individual is seated to the front of the bus, the greater their perceived status, reputation, and moral standing.  Given this, the front rows are the most luxurious, safe, and accommodative positions whereas the back rows are quite the opposite.  The further back one is seated the more deplorable the conditions.