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Financial market price trends and risk sentiment not only signal but affect expectations pertaining to the future which in turn influences economic decisions today and in the future.

 Economic decisions today and expected economic decisions affect financial market price tends and risk sentiment!

 Self-reinforcing: Economic conditions influence the financial environment which then shape expectations.  Expectations feed back into both.
 Theory of reflexivity: Financial market participants attempt to anticipate the future and in doing so make decisions that end up validating their forecasts.  That is until the future present diverges to the point where a rethink and reposition are forced upon markets.  
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Upon graduating from Fairfield University in 2008 with a BS in economics, I started my career working in financial services for Fidelity Charitable Services (Boston) before moving to State Street (Boston).  Although very appreciative of these opportunities, I decided to dedicate myself toward the reexamination of my macroeconomic worldview (money, banking, and the financial system).  From the point of view of an economics graduate, the Global Financial Crisis, Great Recession, and their aftermath forced me to rethink much of what I had learned during my time in college.  Thus, the decision to commit time toward this endeavor felt necessary even if this meant incurring some unpleasant personal risks. 

After a few years of independent study, writing in blog form felt like the obligatory next step.  The reason I write is to hold myself accountable for my current macro worldview while also using new events and data to revise my mental model.  Moreover, unlike a fundamental analyst who uses their understanding of the macro landscape to predict financial market price trends, my strategy utilizes financial market price trends to inform me of the global macro picture.  Only after using technical analysis/trend following strategies in FX, debt, equity, commodity markets etc to recognize price trends, do I attempt to analyze the present macroeconomic situation.  

Currently I am employed by the Edinburg Center (Bedford, MA) as an overnight recovery counselor for individuals suffering from schizophrenia and mood disorders.  Not only has this position given me the opportunity to learn a great deal about myself and the human condition, my overnight hours enable me to continue studying macro and finance.  With that said, my hope is to transition back to a career path that allows me to provide value to a team of people who have also committed themselves to macro and financial market analysis. 

Whether to discuss potential opportunities or just chat about macro trends and the capital markets, please feel free to reach out to me via email

barbieri.rafael9@gmail.com

or follow on Twitter:

@RafaelBarbieri9

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