@RafaelBarbieri9 for day-to-day thoughts

Due to the speed of this situation, thoughts will be updated everyday on the pinned thread using the twitter handle @RafaelBarbieri9.

Be safe and follow the rules as advised by health organizations. Take care of your parent, grandparents, and elderly.
If you take risk, PLEASE use strict risk management (stops or whatever favored method) and proper position sizing.
I lost it all in 2011. This time stops and position sizing saved me! Don't make the same mistake, but don't shun risk if you are so incline. Everyone has to make their own decisions and be accountable to themselves in the end.

Comments

Global bonds continue their rise as the Fed pauses

Given that 2018 ended with the suspicion that decelerating global growth and falling inflation/inflation expectations would force the Fed to pause, bond markets all over the world had begun to rally along with risk assets. Seeing how his rebound has unfolded in Q1, the strength and broad-based nature of the uptrend in credit and risk suggest that the global economy may have averting the potential disaster scenario that was being priced in by markets in Q4 2018. In this light, 2018-2019 so far has more in common with 2015-2016 and 2011-2013 when compared to the prior two pre-recession periods leading up to the cyclical turns in 2000/2002 and 2007/2008. With that said, current market conditions still requires that market participants remain flexible even if a bias toward optimism continues to be favorable. All it would take is for the 2018 lows in credit and risk to give way for major trends and sentiment to shift meaningfully. Before discussing the rally in glob...

Treasury yields have plunged over the last 12 months. What's next?

At the end of January 2019, the 10-year treasury yield stood at roughly 2.7%. Fast forward 12 months later, and the 10-year yield has dropped to below 1.5%. In other words, this is a 44% collapse in one year which helped usher in an epic bond rally. Having just occurred, how does this dive in the 10-year yield compare to past periods and what does this reveal about the likely path forward in long-term rates? Looking back to 1963, this posts will review other times where the 10-year treasury rate rose or declined by at least 20% on a year-over-year basis (monthly closing basis). Doing so will hopefully provide context as to how far long-term rates have dropped in such a relatively short period of time. (*The blue line is the 12-month rate-of-change of the 10-year treasury yield while the black line is the absolute level. The dotted red and green lines are the +20% and -20% year-over-year (YOY) thresholds that will be used throughout this post.) ...

Global Markets hit by a supply shock due to the Coronavirus

Due to family commitments, this post almost exclusively focuses on the price action following a historic week in global markets. Time permitting and after some reflection, next month's post will provide fundamental thoughts on how a supply shock risks creating a demand shock and why the Fed must mitigate the risk of recession by following market interest rates lower. However, for now attention will be squarely placed on the charts. The 10-year treasury yield has finally closed below the 1.3% on a weekly and monthly basis. As mentioned in almost every monthly post since December 2018, the monthly trend is down and should be respected. With that said, the 10-year yield has collapsed a whopping 58% in 12 months. This is a historic drop and is stretched by almost any measure. Even during this secular decline in interest rates that began nearly 40 years ago, such 12-month declines usually produce significant rebounds before proceeding lower. The bullish ...

Millennial Macro