Millennial Macro

If you have not looked at the charts from the prior two posts please do so.  Without providing too much verbiage, let the charts do the talking.   In these charts: Blue lines marks the daily support/resistance. Yellow marks weekly support/resistance. Red marks monthly support/resistence. These represent multiple timeframes and for a support/resistance to flip (a potential trend change in that timeframe), a close must occur in that window.  For example, for the daily trend to change, the closing price must be above the support/resistance line.   The strategy employed by this writer is simple as mentioned in nearly every post for months:  If the price closes above/below a specified level denoting a trend change, a buy/sell is made in that timeframe.  Stops are placed below daily support, weekly support, monthly support using the timeframe just below it (daily trend uses an hourly stop, weekly trend uses a daily stop). Buy orders are...

Due to family commitments, this post almost exclusively focuses on the price action following a historic week in global markets.  Time permitting and after some reflection, next month's post will provide fundamental thoughts on how a supply shock risks creating a demand shock and why the Fed must mitigate the risk of recession by following market interest rates lower.  However, for now attention will be squarely placed on the charts. The 10-year treasury yield has finally closed below the 1.3% on a weekly and monthly basis. As mentioned in almost every monthly post since December 2018, the monthly trend is down and should be respected. With that said, the 10-year yield has collapsed a whopping 58% in 12 months.   This is a historic drop and is stretched by almost any measure.  Even during this secular decline in interest rates that began nearly 40 years ago, such 12-month declines usually produce significant rebounds before proceeding lower. The bullish ...