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Showing posts from January, 2019

Correction or just the first leg of a big bear market?

With 2018 in the books, yearly charts are now available to help explore the question posed in the header and provide insight into the next big move.  Although the following seeks to explore possibilities concerning multiple quarters & years, last month's post provided thoughts pertaining to the potential short to intermediate direction of global markets by looking at the setups in currencies particularly the all-important US dollar. Earlier this year, the USD broke its downtrend to the upside which was confirmed when it closed at a new six month high on a daily basis.  As has been the case since the beginning of the 2000s , periods of dollar strength have tended to coincide with weakness and volatility in risk assets along with rising credit spreads.  Thus far, 2018 has followed this pattern albeit much more violently in emerging markets.  Given the above, the purpose of this post is to highlight critical support and resistance areas in specific currency pair...