After the end of a volatile and tumultuous Q1 2018 for risk assets, this felt like an opportune time to recall the last risk-off period that started midway through 2014 and ended in Q1 2016. The purpose of doing so is in large part to determine whether today's financial and economic backdrop is similar to that one. Although the 2014-2016 volatility in US equities did not result in a major cyclical disruption, financial market price trends suggested that the US and global economy had come perilously close to a possible downturn. 1.) Nominal GDP growth topped out in Q3 2014. In Q3 2014, nominal GDP (total domestic spending) growth hit a high of 5.2% before sliding to as low as 2.45% in Q2 2016. Unlike that two year period, nominal GDP is currently experiencing an upswing with the latest Q4 reading coming in at 4.49%. In fact, aggregate domestic demand growth has reaccelerated after a temporary dip in Q2 2017. Importantly, during much of 2014-2015 the Fed ...