Last month's post, Are the signals that usually precede cyclical downturns present today? , pointed out how the current financial environment is not (yet) reminiscent of prior cyclical economic tops that ushered in major corrections in risk assets. Despite the ongoing correction/volatility in global equity and commodity markets, the yield curve is still positive and above the January 2018 lows, the 10-year treasury yield remains in an uptrend (a sign of improving growth and inflation expectations), high yield credit spreads are still very low and have yet to widen materially, longer term moving average trends in equities still remain favorable, aggregate economic data suggests that the current upswing in NGDP remains intact. With all that said, it is certainly possible that in hindsight the February risk-off move could eventually be understood as the beginning of a major economic and financial market correction rather than normal volatility in an ongoing uptrend....