The purpose of this post is to understand the conditions that led up to the two most recent major cyclical economic and financial market tops in order to determine whether or not they are present today. However, what the following does not seek to do is provide a short-term macro market outlook. Nor does it attempt to predict the trajectory of the ongoing recovery from the Global Recession. The goal is to simply determine whether or not today's macro environment is similar to that of the prior two cyclical turning points. Most importantly, this analysis is not a substitute for sound risk management.