The May 2016 post, The Dollar and Treasury Yields in Limbo: Three Possible Scenarios , sought to work through potential scenarios involving the US dollar and treasury yield curve. The three possible outcomes were: 1) Global Reflation and Currency Convergence The 10 year yield breaks above 2% and tests 2.5% or greater. The dollar index definitively loses $93 support in a downtrend that marking $100 as at least an intermediate term top. 2). US growth rebounds relative to the rest of the world The 10 year yield remains near the current range or breaks below 1.55%. The dollar either continues to consolidate between $100 and $93 or trades above $100. 3). Risk aversion and Panic The 10 year yield trades below 1.55% as it trends towards the 2015 low of sub 1.4%. The dollar index remains range bound or breaks $93 support in a correction before resuming the prior uptrend. Although 2016 began with a fit of risk aversion, once this mood past the trend for ...